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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 9

Detroit Lions 3 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(1:47) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-I.TeSlaa to NYJ 4 for 5 yards (8-A.Cisco).

The Three Options

GO +3.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.34 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 9, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model