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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 23

New York Jets 16 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(4:11) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson to DET 1 for 22 yards (4-D.Reed). Penalty on DET-4-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. New York Jets challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-4-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.45 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 23, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP