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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 60

New York Jets 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 14-A.McNamara punts 47 yards to DET 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.80 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 60, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 19, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP