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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 45

Detroit Lions 24 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 0-J.Gibbs left tackle to NYJ 45 for no gain (52-K.Enagbare). Penalty on DET, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.79 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model