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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 12

Detroit Lions 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.95 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model