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New England Patriots

1-2 HC Mike Vrabel
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Jacksonville Jaguars

2-1 HC Liam Coen
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00 ET EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

NE
37.7%
JAX
62.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • JAX defense: -0.160 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX): +0.181 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NE 23 16–30
–
JAX 27 20–34
Projected margin: JAX by 4 Projected total: 50

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

NE

Dre'Mont Jones LB Out Shoulder
Brenden Schooler S Out Back
Quintayvious Hutchins LB Out Knee
Craig Woodson S Questionable Shoulder
Eli Raridon TE Questionable Thigh

JAX

Albert Regis DT Doubtful Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 6
–
JAX 35

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 13:30 TD JAX (13:30) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 19-J.Cameron for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – JAX 6
  • Q2 09:12 FG NE (9:12) 8-A.Borregales 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. NE 3 – JAX 7
  • Q2 04:28 TD JAX (4:28) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 3-J.Meyers for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – JAX 13
  • Q3 01:13 TD JAX (1:13) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 11-P.Washington for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NE-25-M.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. NE 3 – JAX 20
  • Q3 00:54 TD JAX (:54) 24-C.Rodriguez up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 3 – JAX 27
  • Q4 13:21 FG NE (13:21) 8-A.Borregales 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky. NE 6 – JAX 28
  • Q4 08:06 TD JAX (8:06) 33-B.Tuten up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – JAX 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.51 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (13:14) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to NE 28, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 44%

    (10:20) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 33 yards to JAX 12, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-36-C.Latu.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62%

    (7:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to NE 28, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at NE 29 for 1 yard (27-C.Ransaw; 19-J.Cameron).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (11:23) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 73 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%

    (9:12) 8-A.Borregales 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 27%

    (:03) 39-C.Little 70 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 25%

    (13:23) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to 50 for 3 yards (47-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on JAX-6-A.Johnson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at 50.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 92%

    (9:54) 8-A.Borregales 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 16 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 90%

    (13:21) 8-A.Borregales 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 7 at the 25 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 87%

    (2:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.DeVito pass incomplete deep left to 3-D.Douglas.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:34) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to NE 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 86-E.Chism pushed ob at NE 40 for 18 yards (19-J.Cameron).

    See the full breakdown →