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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 52

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(:03) 39-C.Little 70 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.61 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 52, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model