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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 25

New England Patriots 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 35

What Actually Happened

(2:39) (Shotgun) 16-T.DeVito pass incomplete deep left to 3-D.Douglas.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.08 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.66 EP