4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 45

New England Patriots 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 33 yards to JAX 12, Center-47-J.Ashby, downed by NE-36-C.Latu.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.29 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.09 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model