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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(7:52) 9-L.Cooke punts 40 yards to NE 28, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at NE 29 for 1 yard (27-C.Ransaw; 19-J.Cameron).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +2.08 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 26, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model