4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 20

New England Patriots 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(9:54) 8-A.Borregales 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.00 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 20, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model