Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 73

Jacksonville Jaguars 35 – New England Patriots 6

(:34) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to NE 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 86-E.Chism pushed ob at NE 40 for 18 yards (19-J.Cameron).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.43 EP
60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 73, worth -1.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model