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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 73

New England Patriots 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 73 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.96 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 73, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 31, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP