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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 79

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(13:14) 9-L.Cooke punts 51 yards to NE 28, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.38 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 79, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 36, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.51 EP