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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 17

New England Patriots 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 8-A.Borregales 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.89 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 17, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.21 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 27, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model