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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 53

New England Patriots 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 38-R.Stevenson up the middle to 50 for 3 yards (47-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on JAX-6-A.Johnson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at 50.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.73 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 53, worth -3.14 EP
KICK -1.91 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model