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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 22

New England Patriots 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 28

What Actually Happened

(13:21) 8-A.Borregales 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.48 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 22, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 32, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model