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Best Bets — Week 5

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

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LV @

Model: NE 83.8% · strong edge

LV offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

CHI @

Model: GB 67.2% · clear edge

GB offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

SF @

SEA

Model: SEA 67.0% · clear edge

SEA defense: -0.190 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

PHI @

JAX

Model: JAX 64.2% · clear edge

Neutral site — no home-field edge

DET @

ARI

Model: DET 63.4% · clear edge

ARI defense: +0.195 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

TB @

DAL

Model: DAL 62.2% · clear edge

DAL defense: +0.179 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)