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Best Bets — Week 5

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

2025 2026

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LV @

Model: NE 85.6% · strong edge

LV offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

SF @

SEA

Model: SEA 73.2% · strong edge

SEA defense: -0.190 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

PHI @

JAX

Model: JAX 68.9% · clear edge

JAX defense: -0.160 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

CHI @

Model: GB 65.5% · clear edge

GB offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

DET @

ARI

Model: DET 62.8% · clear edge

ARI defense: +0.195 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)