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Philadelphia Eagles

2-3 HC Nick Sirianni
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Jacksonville Jaguars

4-1 HC Liam Coen
Sunday 2026-10-11 · 09:30 ET Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

PHI
35.8%
JAX
64.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • QB edge to JAX: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) +0.235 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) -0.029 EPA/dropback
  • JAX defense: -0.160 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • JAX offense: +0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23 16–30
–
JAX 26 19–33
Projected margin: JAX by 3 Projected total: 49

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

PHI

Saquon Barkley RB Out Hamstring
Marcus Epps S Out Groin
Marquise Brown WR Out Ankle
DeVonta Smith WR Out Hamstring
Drew Kendall C Out Knee
Jonathan Greenard LB Questionable Ankle

JAX

Jaylon Jones CB Out Hamstring
Eric Murray S Doubtful Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 17
–
JAX 19

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:36 TD JAX (5:36) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 11-P.Washington for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – JAX 6
  • Q2 08:49 TD PHI (8:49) 28-W.Shipley up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – JAX 7
  • Q2 05:41 TD PHI (5:41) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 80-D.Cooper for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – JAX 7
  • Q3 07:15 FG JAX (7:15) 39-C.Little 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. PHI 14 – JAX 10
  • Q4 03:26 TD JAX (3:26) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-P.Washington for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 14 – JAX 16
  • Q4 00:12 FG PHI (:12) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 17 – JAX 16
  • Q4 00:01 FG JAX (:01) 39-C.Little 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke. PHI 17 – JAX 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 66%

    (6:56) (Shotgun) 28-W.Shipley right guard to JAX 37 for no gain (52-D.Hamilton). (Virtual Measurement). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 30%

    (4:26) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to JAX 9, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (1:25) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to PHI 22, Center-52-D.Hamilton. 85-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 36 for 14 yards (19-J.Cameron).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 93%

    (1:06) 33-B.Tuten left end to PHI 17 for 2 yards (35-M.Carter).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (:01) 33-B.Tuten left end to PHI 7 for -6 yards (53-Z.Baun). PHI-58-J.Hunt was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:38) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to JAX 15, Center-41-R.Underwood, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 12 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (7:15) 39-C.Little 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 50%

    (3:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 9-M.Lemon (12-T.Hunter).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PHI 4th & 13 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:56) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-41-R.Underwood, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:07) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to PHI 22, Center-52-D.Hamilton. 85-B.Covey to PHI 38 for 16 yards (6-A.Johnson). PENALTY on PHI-34-C.Steele, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 22.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:19) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to JAX 37, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 37 for no gain.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (6:40) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Meyers [17-A.Ebiketie].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PHI 4th & 9 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:40) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to JAX 47, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 49 for 2 yards (17-A.Ebiketie).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 85%

    (3:26) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-P.Washington for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PHI 4th & 16 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:14) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to JAX 14, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 23 for 9 yards (17-A.Ebiketie).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 JAX 4th & 2 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (1:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to PHI 28, Center-52-D.Hamilton. 85-B.Covey to PHI 38 for 10 yards (35-J.Mcleod).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 80%

    (:12) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.

    See the full breakdown →