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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(:56) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-41-R.Underwood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.85 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model