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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 63

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 10-B.Mann punts 48 yards to JAX 15, Center-41-R.Underwood, fair catch by 11-P.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.10 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 63, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 21, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP