Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 65

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to PHI 22, Center-52-D.Hamilton. 85-B.Covey to PHI 38 for 16 yards (6-A.Johnson). PENALTY on PHI-34-C.Steele, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.19 EP
58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model