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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 88

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to JAX 37, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 37 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.77 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 88, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 46, worth -2.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model