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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 5

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(6:40) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Meyers [17-A.Ebiketie].

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.43 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 5, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model