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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 30

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(:12) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +1.03 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model