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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 16

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 39-C.Little 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.99 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 16, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model