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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Jacksonville Jaguars
4th & 1 at the 19
Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14
What Actually Happened
(1:06) 33-B.Tuten left end to PHI 17 for 2 yards (35-M.Carter).
The Three Options
GO
+3.11 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.74 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 19, worth -0.35 EP
KICK
+1.91 EP
- 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
- 7% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT
+0.19 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
