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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 43

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(3:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 9-M.Lemon (12-T.Hunter).

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.29 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 43, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model