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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 27

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(3:26) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-P.Washington for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.15 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model