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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to JAX 14, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 23 for 9 yards (17-A.Ebiketie).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.69 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model