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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 1

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(:01) 33-B.Tuten left end to PHI 7 for -6 yards (53-Z.Baun). PHI-58-J.Hunt was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +4.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.91 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 1, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model