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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 69

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 41 yards to PHI 28, Center-52-D.Hamilton. 85-B.Covey to PHI 38 for 10 yards (35-J.Mcleod).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.88 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -2.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 27, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP