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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(1:25) 9-L.Cooke punts 48 yards to PHI 22, Center-52-D.Hamilton. 85-B.Covey pushed ob at PHI 36 for 14 yards (19-J.Cameron).

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.78 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP