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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 37

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(6:56) (Shotgun) 28-W.Shipley right guard to JAX 37 for no gain (52-D.Hamilton). (Virtual Measurement). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.40 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 37, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model