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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 51

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 10-B.Mann punts 42 yards to JAX 9, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.90 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 51, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.73 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model