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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 93

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to JAX 47, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-P.Washington ran ob at JAX 49 for 2 yards (17-A.Ebiketie).

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.60 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 93, worth -5.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 51, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model