Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- GB offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- QB edge to GB: Jordan Love (GB) +0.133 vs Tyson Bagent (CHI) -0.100 EPA/dropback (CHI starting Tyson Bagent in place of Case Keenum)
- CHI offense: +0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- GB defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
- CHI defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 5
CHI
GB
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:57 TD GB (5:57) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 9-C.Watson for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – GB 6
- Q2 15:00 TD GB (15:00) 32-M.Lloyd right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – GB 13
- Q2 01:56 TD CHI (1:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – GB 14
- Q3 13:19 TD GB (13:19) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – GB 20
- Q3 02:02 FG GB (2:02) 28-T.Smack 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. CHI 7 – GB 23
- Q4 15:00 TD GB (15:00) 32-M.Lloyd left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 7 – GB 29
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CHI 4th & 15 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(12:13) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to GB 9, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 24Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 70% p(FG) 89%
(2:37) (Shotgun) 22-P.Strong right guard to CHI 22 for 2 yards (55-D.Odeyingbo).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(13:26) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to GB 20, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-9-J.Walker.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EPp(convert) 65%
(11:13) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to CHI 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 22 for 9 yards (87-J.Sturdivant).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 99%
(1:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 GB 4th & 6 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(1:36) 19-D.Whelan punts 75 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback. PENALTY on CHI-24-M.Muhammad, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 20.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 90Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 56 yards to GB 34, Center-46-S.Daly. 0-M.Golden ran ob at CHI 49 for 17 yards (87-S.Roush).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 11 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 88%
(8:40) 8-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 GB 4th & 11 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(6:22) 19-D.Whelan punts 41 yards to CHI 13, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 3 at the 80Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 59%
(4:20) 19-T.Taylor punts 52 yards to GB 28, Center-46-S.Daly. 0-M.Golden pushed ob at GB 38 for 10 yards (38-S.Thomas).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 GB 4th & 11 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 94%
(2:02) 28-T.Smack 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 61Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(1:16) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to CHI 46 for 7 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CHI 4th & 9 at the 9Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%
(12:58) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle intended for 15-R.Odunze INTERCEPTED by 59-T.Hopper [90-L.Van Ness] at GB -1. 59-T.Hopper to GB 19 for 20 yards (23-R.Johnson).
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Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 24Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 89%
(9:50) 28-T.Smack 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 40Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 58%
(8:36) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to GB 31 for 9 yards (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), touched at GB 37, RECOVERED by GB-33-E.Williams at GB 43.
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Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 82%
(5:25) 28-T.Smack 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 53 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 26%
(3:18) 19-D.Whelan punts 46 yards to CHI 7, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 13-Z.Thomas.
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