Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 62

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(12:13) 19-T.Taylor punts 53 yards to GB 9, Center-46-S.Daly, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.75 EP
70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model