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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 40

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 31

What Actually Happened

(8:36) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to GB 31 for 9 yards (44-Z.Franklin). FUMBLES (44-Z.Franklin), touched at GB 37, RECOVERED by GB-33-E.Williams at GB 43.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.73 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model