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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 17

Green Bay Packers 20 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(2:02) 28-T.Smack 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.59 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 17, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model