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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 9

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 31

What Actually Happened

(12:58) (Shotgun) 11-C.Keenum pass short middle intended for 15-R.Odunze INTERCEPTED by 59-T.Hopper [90-L.Van Ness] at GB -1. 59-T.Hopper to GB 19 for 20 yards (23-R.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model