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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 14 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 19-D.Whelan punts 59 yards to CHI 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 14-K.Raymond to CHI 22 for 9 yards (87-J.Sturdivant).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.70 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 30, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP