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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 71

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 19-T.Taylor punts 51 yards to GB 20, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-9-J.Walker.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.44 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model