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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 80

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 19-T.Taylor punts 52 yards to GB 28, Center-46-S.Daly. 0-M.Golden pushed ob at GB 38 for 10 yards (38-S.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.73 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.10 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 37, worth -2.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP