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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 24

Green Bay Packers 31 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 28-T.Smack 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.32 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP