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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 61

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 23

What Actually Happened

(1:16) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass short middle to 84-C.Loveland to CHI 46 for 7 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.06 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model