Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 75

Green Bay Packers 14 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 19-D.Whelan punts 75 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback. PENALTY on CHI-24-M.Muhammad, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.54 EP
53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 75, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model