Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 20 – Chicago Bears 7

(6:22) 19-D.Whelan punts 41 yards to CHI 13, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.10 EP
65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 54, worth -2.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model