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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 24

Green Bay Packers 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(2:37) (Shotgun) 22-P.Strong right guard to CHI 22 for 2 yards (55-D.Odeyingbo).

The Three Options

GO +3.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.57 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model