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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 90

Chicago Bears 7 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(:51) 19-T.Taylor punts 56 yards to GB 34, Center-46-S.Daly. 0-M.Golden ran ob at CHI 49 for 17 yards (87-S.Roush).

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.58 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model